Chapter 03 of 41Field guide13 min readUpdated 2026-10-03

Capabilities: prediction, generation, and action

Choose the capability the work requires.

"Use AI" is too broad to specify a system. A useful requirement names what the system must do with its inputs. Does it need to identify a field, find a source, estimate a future outcome, create a draft, or change something in another application?

Several capabilities can be combined in one workflow. They do not need to come from the same model, and some may be better implemented with ordinary software.

This chapter names eight capabilities, explains how each is checked and how each fails, and shows how the guide's workflows combine them. The taxonomy is an editorial tool for writing requirements, not a scientific classification.

The capability map

CapabilityQuestion it answersExample
ExtractWhat information is present?Quantity on a purchase order
ClassifyWhich defined category applies?Route a support request
RetrieveWhere is relevant information?Find an approved setup guide
GenerateWhat output should be composed?Draft an explanation
PredictWhat outcome is likely?Demand over a replenishment period
OptimizeWhich feasible choice best serves an objective?Proposed production schedule
PerceiveWhat is in a signal?Defect in an image or speech in audio
ActWhat authorized change should be executed?Create an approved order

These are functional categories, not mutually exclusive scientific definitions. Speech transcription can also be treated as extraction. An image model can classify defects. The taxonomy is useful when it clarifies requirements; it should not force one label onto a mixed system.

Proposed design

How far each capability sits from a consequential action

Informs

Output is information a person reads

  • RetrieveFind an approved setup guide
  • ExtractQuantity on a purchase order
  • PerceiveDefect in an image or speech in audio

Proposes

Output suggests a decision a person or rule takes

  • ClassifyRoute a support request
  • GenerateDraft an explanation
  • PredictDemand over a replenishment period
  • OptimizeProposed production schedule

Acts

Output changes something outside the system

  • ActCreate an approved order

Authority boundary: crossing it requires an authorized, permission-checked, recoverable action.

Closer to action →

The eight capabilities from the table above, grouped by how directly their output changes something. Only acting crosses the authority boundary, which is why it needs application design, permissions, and recovery rather than a better model. The grouping is editorial: a classification that routes work automatically, for example, has moved closer to action, and mixed systems span several groups. Capabilities and examples from this chapter; grouping is editorial judgment.

Each capability: output, check, and failure

The table below adds what each capability produces, how a person or rule can check it, and a characteristic failure. The failures are the ones the guide's chapters design against; they are illustrations, not measured frequencies.

CapabilityOutputHow it can be checkedCharacteristic failureWhere the guide shows it
ExtractA value with its location in the sourceCompare the value with the cited spanA plausible value where the source is silentCatalog enrichment, order intake
ClassifyA label from a fixed setConfusion between categories, weighted by consequenceA confident label for a case that belongs to no categorySupport replies scope check
RetrieveA ranked set of permitted passagesWhether required sources are found; whether restricted ones are excludedThe right document missed, or a restricted one shaping the answerKnowledge retrieval
GenerateComposed text or structureEach material claim against permitted evidenceFluent prose that states something no source supportsSupport replies, proposals
PredictAn estimate, ideally with a rangeError on periods unseen at prediction timeA good average that hides bias or damaging item-level missesInventory forecasting
OptimizeA choice among feasible optionsFeasibility under every hard constraint, then the objectiveAn "optimal" choice that breaks a constraint the model never sawReplenishment policy in forecasting
PerceiveA reading of an image, audio, or other signalErrors under the real capture conditions and speaker rangeAccuracy that varies by speaker, lighting, or deviceTranscription in meeting follow-up
ActA change in another systemThe change happened once, as authorized, and can be reconciledA duplicate write after a timeout; an action no one authorizedOrder creation in order intake

Two patterns in this table matter for requirements:

  • The check differs by capability. Extraction is checked against a span, prediction against the future, action against a system's record of what happened. A single "accuracy" figure across a mixed system hides which capability failed.
  • The failure that matters may be a confident wrong answer, not an error message. Extraction that invents a missing value, classification that forces an odd case into a category, and generation that states an unsupported fact all look like success at a glance. That is why the workflow chapters ask for source spans, an explicit "none of these" category, and claim-by-claim review.

Perception depends on conditions

Perception depends heavily on how the signal was captured. A peer-reviewed study of five commercial speech-recognition systems, tested before 2020 on interview recordings, reported an average word error rate of 0.35 for Black speakers against 0.19 for white speakers. Koenecke et al., PNAS 2020 The study concerns older systems and a specific audio collection, not current products or business meetings. It supports a narrow design point: evaluate perception on the range of voices, accents, devices, and conditions the workflow will actually see, and do not assume errors fall evenly.

Prediction is different from explanation

A forecasting model produces an estimate of future demand. A language system can describe that estimate and its assumptions. A convincing description does not validate the forecast. Evaluate the prediction against outcomes that were unavailable when it was made, and evaluate the explanation for fidelity to the actual calculation.

Similarly, a model can summarize why an order was flagged without being the best mechanism for flagging it. Compare explicit rules with model-based checks for missing fields and invalid quantities; do not assume which approach performs better.

Two further points from forecasting practice apply to any prediction:

  • Compare with a simple benchmark. The forecasting textbook the guide relies on describes simple methods (the mean, the last value, the same period last season, and a drift line) and notes that one of them is sometimes the best method available, while in other cases they serve as benchmarks. FPP3, section 5.2 A prediction that does not beat a naive forecast on unseen data has not earned a place in the workflow.
  • A point estimate without a range can mislead. The same source states that point forecasts can be of almost no value without accompanying prediction intervals. FPP3, section 5.5 In the forecasting chapter, the intermittent item shows the problem: a forecast of one case a week describes an item that sold nothing in most weeks.

Generation is different from retrieval

Retrieval selects information from a collection. Generation composes an output. In a knowledge assistant, the system may retrieve approved documents and use them as context for a draft. The two stages can fail separately: the right document may not be found, or the draft may misrepresent a document that was found.

Decide whether a generated answer is needed. Sometimes the right result is a short list of documents, an exact passage, or a structured field with a source reference. Adding prose can increase review work without improving the decision.

Retrieval itself is not one technique. Microsoft's documentation for its search service, a vendor source, describes keyword retrieval as serving exact identifiers while vector retrieval can find conceptually similar material without matching terms. Microsoft hybrid search In the knowledge retrieval chapter, a question about "pricing redesign" needs to reach a document about "tariff restructuring", which is a conceptual match; a question about engagement ENG-2231 needs the exact identifier. The retrieval chapter covers the trade-offs.

A misreading to avoid

"The model knows our products" can mean two different things: the model was given approved documents to retrieve from, or it is answering from what it absorbed in training. The first can be checked passage by passage and kept current by maintaining the documents. The second cannot be checked against a source and does not update when the product changes. The support chapter's worked ticket fails precisely when an archived version-3 rule reaches the draft; a requirement written as "retrieve from approved, current documents and cite them" prevents that, where "answer product questions" does not.

Optimization needs an objective and constraints

A distributor might predict demand, then use a purchasing policy or optimizer to determine order quantities. The chosen action depends on stock, lead times, order minimums, service targets, and cost assumptions. Improving a forecast does not specify those choices by itself.

Be explicit about what "best" means. Minimizing inventory and minimizing stockouts are different objectives. A generated recommendation that ignores a hard supplier constraint is not feasible even if its explanation sounds reasonable.

Writing an optimization requirement

As a proposed template, an optimization requirement has three parts:

  1. The objective, in one sentence. "Minimize average inventory value" or "minimize expected stockouts of critical items". If two objectives compete, say which wins or how they trade.
  2. Hard constraints. Pack sizes, order minimums, supplier lead times, budget limits. A result that breaks one is infeasible, not merely worse.
  3. The comparison. The current rule, run under the same constraints. In the forecasting chapter, the same order-up-to policy is applied to every forecasting method, so a better result can be attributed to the forecast rather than to a changed rule.

The forecasting chapter also notes that fixing the policy layer (confirmed lead times, explicit buffers, correct pack sizes) may be the cheaper improvement. An optimizer working on wrong constraints will produce confidently wrong choices.

Action requires application design

For your technical lead

An action-taking system connects model output to tools or software interfaces. The model may propose parameters, but application controls should determine whether the action is allowed. The system needs a way to handle invalid inputs, retries, partial failure, and uncertain outcomes.

A customer email containing "ignore the usual rules" is not authority to change those rules. Treat information supplied to the system separately from permissions granted by the organization. The retrieval chapter covers this prompt-injection risk; it is a reason to keep permissions in the application, not in instructions to the model.

Uncertain outcomes are part of the design

An action can succeed while the confirmation is lost. Writes need idempotent submission; the order-intake chapter cites the engineering source and works through the consequence: a retry sent as a new request after a timeout creates a second order, while a retry that carries the same operation identifier, or a status lookup by that identifier, finds the first one. This is application design, not model behavior, and it belongs in the requirement for any capability that acts.

Choose the simplest useful combination

For order intake, a sensible candidate might combine document extraction, a fixed schema, deterministic unit checks, proposed product matching, and human-approved execution. A conversational agent is not required just because several steps are involved.

For forecasting, start with a simple comparison method and a meaningful evaluation period. For proposals, start with a maintained template and approved source library. Google's engineering guidance recommends establishing metrics and a simple initial system before adding complexity. That principle supports a comparison baseline; it does not determine which implementation will win your evaluation. Rules of Machine Learning

Worked combinations from the guide

These summarize designs the workflow chapters propose; they are not observed deployments.

WorkflowCapabilities usedDone by ordinary software insteadWho acts
Support repliesClassify (scope), retrieve, generateVersion filtering of articles; permission filteringAgent sends
ProposalsExtract (requirements), retrieve (approved material), generate (draft)Requirements tracking; reuse-permission checks on credentialsPartner and delivery lead approve; a person submits
Order intakeExtract, classify (mapping proposals)Unit conversion, required-field and duplicate rules, idempotent order creationSpecialist approves; integration writes once
Incident triageRetrieve, generate (brief)Alert grouping and counts, time-windowed queriesCommander authorizes mitigation
OnboardingRetrieve, generate (plan)Checking plan steps against the structured entitlement recordSpecialist approves and sends
Knowledge retrievalRetrieve, generate (answer package)Permission filtering before rankingConsultant verifies before use
Meeting follow-upPerceive (speech), extract, generateExcluding off-record segments; task identifiersRecap owner approves send and each task
ForecastingPredict, optimize (policy)Pack rounding, exception flagsPlanner approves; buyer places
Catalog enrichmentExtract, generate (copy)Unit conversion with NIST factors, vocabulary checksSteward approves publication

The pattern is consistent: deterministic steps (conversions, permissions, duplicates, counts) stay in ordinary code, where they can be tested exactly, and the model handles the parts that need interpretation. Action stays with a named person or a controlled integration.

When the simplest combination is no model at all

Some requirements dissolve on inspection. If customers can send structured orders, extraction is unnecessary. If documentation is owned and searchable, a search interface may answer most questions without generation. If a planner's main problem is wrong lead times, better data beats better prediction. Each workflow chapter compares its design against such an alternative; the comparison belongs in the requirement, so the team measures whether the model adds anything.

Write requirements with capability verbs

Write requirements using capability verbs, then assign an evaluation method to each. This prevents a product label or model brand from standing in for a clear description of the work.

A proposed format, one line per step:

[Capability] [what] from [permitted input], checked by [method], with [failure that matters] handled by [control]. Output goes to [person or system], who [decides or acts].

For example: "Extract quantity and unit from the customer's purchase order, checked against the source span and the item master's pack size, with a pack-size conflict handled by blocking the line for buyer confirmation. Output goes to the order specialist, who approves the order."

Requirements written this way make model selection a comparison of configurations against named checks, which is how the model-selection chapter proceeds. They also make clear which steps need a model and which do not.

Related chapters: workflow change, authority, model selection, retrieval, document extraction, inventory forecasting.

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